Looking at the lineups throughout our league, it's evident that nearly every team follows certain conventions. The bowler with the highest average typically bowls last and the bowler with the lowest average typically bowls second. But what of the first and third positions? Is there a trend we might be able to exploit with a lineup shift?
Our own lineup features Quinton bowling first with Brandon bowling third and they have shown distinctive statistical trends. Quinton's scores cover a wide range with high peaks and low valleys whereas Brandon's scores are concentrated in a much smaller range near the middle.
250+ <170 190-229 220-249
Quinton 10.0% 41.7% 26.7% 3.3%
Brandon 2.9% 12.0% 49.3% 17.4%
In most instances, scores over 250 will produce a win while scores under 170 will produce a loss. Nearly half of Brandon's scores land within the range of 190-229 but he shoots 250 or higher only 2.9% of the time. Quinton scores 250 or higher in 10% of his games but he scores in the 190-229 in only slightly more than a quarter of his games. On the low end of the scale, Quinton has 41.7% under 170 compared to Brandon's 12%.
If our opponents' lineups are such that their third bowler is consistently outscoring their first bowler, and their third bowler is also consistently outscoring Brandon, there could be an advantage in having Quinton and Brandon swap positions. Let's assume our opponents in the first position are typically bowling 180-210 and our opponents in the third position are typically bowing in the 210-240 range. Going forward with this assumption, Brandon is losing games in the third position, bowling in his typical 200-225 range. At the same time, Quinton's games over 250 are crushing his opponents in the first position while his games under 170 are losses.
Intuitively, it seems we would better off with Brandon bowling first to outscore opponents bowling 180-210 while Quinton's 250+ games would yield wins in the third position over opponents bowling 210-240 -- games that would have been losses for Brandon. Quinton's higher volume of games under 170 are going to be lost most of the time in either position so on the surface, it seems we would be maximizing wins in the first position with a marginal loss in the third position. That's the theory, anyway. Do the numbers back it up?
We have bowled twenty-three weeks of the season thus far. How much of a difference (if any) would it have made in Brandon bowled first and Quinton bowled third? In seven of them, the lineup change wouldn't have affected the score at all. We would have gained half a point in one week, one point in five weeks and two points in three weeks. On the flip side, we would have lost a point in five of the weeks, two points in one week and in one week (#19) we'd have lost four points! The net result would be a gain of half a point.
Why don't the numbers support what appears to be a reasonable theory? The flaw was in the assumption our opponents are consistently stronger in the third position than the first. Our opponents haven't demonstrated a consistent level of performance in either position. We don't have a trend that can be exploited with a lineup change. We're in the same position as the football coach who calls a timeout right before the snap when his opponent is attempting a potential game winning field goal. If the timeout negates a good kick and then the second kick misses, the coach looks brilliant. But if the kicker misses the first one and makes the second, the coach looks like an idiot. (Hello, Tom Cable!) Without any data demonstrating that kickers are more likely to make the first kick and miss the second one, what's the point? It's nothing more than a crap shoot that's just as likely to fail as succeed.
Does this mean we shouldn't change our lineup? No. It means there's no demonstrated statistical basis for it. But if Quinton and Brandon want to switch positions because Brandon would feel more comfortable bowling first and Quinton would feel more comfortable bowling third, there could be a benefit to it. Many people perform better where they are comfortable. If a lineup shift puts both of them in their comfort zone, we should consider it. If it would make either of them uncomfortable, we should drop the idea like a bad habit.
GAMES 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 TOTAL
Quinton 1 1 1 6 6 10 5 7 6 4 5 1 1 4 2 60
Mark 3 4 6 6 8 10 6 10 5 3 4 1 66
Brandon 1 3 4 8 11 11 9 8 6 3 3 2 69
Garrett 2 2 5 5 5 7 10 10 7 5 4 2 2 66
Kevin 2 1 2 1 6
TOTAL 1 1 4 11 17 22 23 34 28 30 25 21 18 11 11 6 2 0 2 0 267
SERIES 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 650 675 700 725 750 775 800 825 850 875 TOTAL
Quinton 2 2 3 4 1 2 2 3 1 20
Mark 2 3 1 6 2 2 2 3 1 22
Brandon 1 3 6 5 3 3 1 1 23
Garrett 1 4 2 4 4 3 2 1 1 22
Kevin 2 2
TOTAL 0 2 2 5 5 13 10 9 11 11 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 89
TEAM PBS
Competing in the 810 Showcase League at Diablo Valley Bowl.
I will bowl in any position the team thinks will help us score more points. It doesn't make any difference to me.
ReplyDeletei'm ok with anything that will help the team
ReplyDeleteI'm with Quinton. I'll go along with anything that increses the chances of that $12,000 check landing in our hands.
Delete